GVK Power & Infrastructure has gained investors’ interest recently following news of the company’s plans to monetise assets in the coal and airport verticals.
The recent completion of the new terminal at the Mumbai airport has further fuelled hopes that the company’s debt burden will ease. Though a lot of this is driven by hopes, analysts are cautious because at present there are many issues and its resolution may not happen soon, which could have a bearing on GVK’s share price.
"Notwithstanding improvements in operating performance of airport and road assets, GVK’s cash flow concerns are expected to exacerbate due to incremental funding needs for financing cost overruns. High debt burden and the need to retire acquisition debt are other issues which GVK has to face," said Shankar K, who tracks the company at Edelweiss Securities in a research note.
In fact, analysts are not falling for the stock’s cheap valuations at this point in time as they believe some of the issues are far more risky from the investors’ perspective. "We highlight that higher leverage, Hancock (coal business based in Australia) and overhang in power vertical would continue to weigh on the stock despite attractive valuations," said Deepak Purswani, who is tracking the company at ICICI Securities.
After the completion of terminal 2 at the Mumbai Airport, the market has started to look for the monetisation of the adjourning land bank. Monetisation of the land bank would be crucial for retiring some of GVK’s debt, which has been the biggest concern for the investors for quite some time now. Earlier, the company received interest from about 23 parties for the monetisation of the 1.8 million square feet of land of Mumbai International Airport (MIAL). The analysts are expecting this monetisation to fetch around Rs 1,200-1,500 crore, which may not be sufficient given the huge debt of over Rs 18,500 crore in the company’s books. However, it could kick-start the monetisation programme and would provide the much required liquidity in the interim.
The company had earlier said that it plans to monetise assets in the coal, power and airport businesses. However, looking at the issues in the power and coal businesses, the Street is banking on the monetisation of airport-related assets, which now should be easier given that the asset has become operational. Also, this vertical is currently making profits and that will enable the company to get good valuations. The book value of GVK's stake in the airport business alone is estimated to be worth over Rs 3,000 crore, including Rs 2,200 crore for the Mumbai Airport. How much the company is able to command from investors for these assets will determine the quantum of debt reduction. Analysts though are still cautious.
"Even in airport business, considering the current valuations, it would not fetch much money and if the company sells a large stake, it will have nothing in its portfolio to talk about," said an analyst with the leading broking house.
The issue of debt reduction is crucial, especially in the light of tight liquidity and weak cash flows from the operations. In the September quarter, the company incurred interest cost of Rs 213 crore on an operating profit of Rs 299 crore indicating very less leeway in terms of disposable profits for repaying debt. Even then, the Street was worried about how the company was going to repay its debt and service interest cost in the light of losses in the power business and constraint cash flows.
The power segment employs Rs 10,755 crore of capital and generates quarterly sale of Rs 96.06 crore. It’s over 900 mw of gas-based power generation capacity is currently operating at about 20-30%, and is not even able to recover the costs and service the debt. The market has written off the equity invested in these projects, which are suffering due to the lack of gas availability and because of the losses. In fact, analysts worry if the problem of the gas availability is not resolved, the debt taken for the power projects could have their bearing on the overall business of the company. However, with news about a possible increase in India’s gas availability doing the rounds, there is a ray of hope. If things improve for GVK, these assets should see better output and consequently also see an improvement in financial performance and valuations.
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