CERC has released the analysis of power trading activities performed by the licensed traders for the month of November 2013.
The abstract of the report is presented below:
Summary
- The reported short-term contract volume for November 2013 (analysis of four weeks) is 1585 MUs whereas the same was 2262 MUs for the month of October 2013 (analysis of five weeks). This is equivalent to about 12% decrease in average weekly volume transacted during October.
- 91% of total volume has been contracted at price of more than `4/kWh during November as compared to 85% of total volume contracted during October.
- Total number of contracts (including swap & banking) executed during November is 127 by 6 traders whereas in October the number of contracts executed was 273 by 9 traders.
Comparison of Short Term OTC contracts prices with Power Exchange prices (on Contracted Date)
The maximum number of contracts are executed in the fourth week of the period and the overall price of OTC contracts executed was in the range of Rs. 2.23/kWh - Rs. 6.97/kWh whereas the prices on the Exchanges varied between Rs. 1.61/kWh - Rs. 3.49/kWh. (Pl refer the embedded report)
Forward Curve of Power Prices
A forward curve reflects present day’s expectation of spot prices for a future period. Accordingly forward curves have been drawn based on prices of contracts executed for supply of power for future period. Forward curve have been drawn for December 2013 – May 2014 based on 120 contracts.
The Forward Curve for November 2013 is based on 120 reported contracts for the period up to 1st December 2013 and the tenure of the curve is for the period 8th December 2013 to 31st May 2014(period of power delivery). The forward prices for December 2013 & January 2014 are based on 30 & 25 contracts respectively whereas the forward prices for April & May 2014 are based on only 5-7 contracts. Thus, the liquidity is high in terms of number of contracts in the nearer months in comparison to farther months and therefore the price indicators are better for nearer months. (Pl refer the embedded report)
Post-facto Comparison of Prices in OTC Contracts and in Power Exchanges (on Power Delivery Dates)
The post facto graph shows the average OTC price vis-Ã -vis power exchanges prices for the last month’s power deliveries. Hence this compares the spot Power Exchange prices with OTC deliveries (OTC contracts may have been executed earlier but delivered on the same days as on the exchange spot deliveries). The methodology of calculating the data points of OTC prices is same as in the forward curve. (Pl refer the embedded report)
List of traders who have undertaken contracts in October 2013
|
Trader | 4th Nov - 10th Nov | 11th Nov - 17th Nov | 18th Nov - 24th Nov | 25th Nov - 1st Dec | Grand Total |
| PTC India Ltd | Y(26) | Y(20) | Y(21) | Y(29) | Y(96) |
| NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Limited | NIL | NIL | Y(4) | Y(16) | Y(20) |
| Tata Power Trading Co. Ltd | NIL | NR | Y(4) | NIL | Y(4) |
| JSW Power Trading Co. Ltd | NIL | NIL | Y(3) | NR | Y(3) |
| Mittal Processors Pvt. Ltd | NR | NR | NR | Y(3) | Y(3) |
| Instinct Infra & Power Ltd | NR | NIL | NIL | Y(1) | Y(1) |
| Grand Total | Y(26) | Y(20) | Y(32) | Y(49) | Y(127) |
Note 1: Y ( ): Contracts had been undertaken (Number of Contracts), NIL: No Contracts was made during the week, NR: Not Reported
*Note 2: This table shows list of traders who have reported & undertaken at least one contract during the reported period. There could be some traders who have reported but did not undertake any contracts.
Complete report is embedded below.
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